Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 27
Singapore tonnage surges on Atlantic pull, but short-term easing expected
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore surged last week, marking a sharp rebound from the previous week and rising well above the year-to-date average. The increase was driven by strong gains in both Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax and dedicated VLOC volumes, with Capesize/Newcastlemax tonnage more than doubling WoW. Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to ease in the coming week, with the pullback likely to be led by a drop in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax flows, with a smaller decrease anticipated in dedicated VLOC volumes. From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking higher YoY, with both Dedicated VLOCs and Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes up year-on-year as well.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Drop Sharply on Weaker Pilbara Loadings
Steepest weekly drop this year as Dampier and FMG volumes retreat
Australian iron ore exports fell last week, marking one of the steepest weekly declines this year. The drop was driven by reduced activity at Dampier, as well as softer loadings out of Port Hedland – FMG and BHP. The downturn came amid maintenance works at Dampier, Port Hedland, and Port Walcott, as the marketing year for the major Aussie miners came to a close. Looking ahead, with scheduled maintenance and wind disruptions continuing across major ports, export volumes are expected to normalize following the elevated levels seen in previous weeks.
Australian Coal Exports Slide as Weather and Maintenance Pressure East Coast Volumes
Newcastle and Hay Point lead declines as swells and showers disrupt loading
Australian coal exports fell last week, with both steam and coking coal volumes pulling back. The decline was led by weaker steam coal shipments out of Newcastle, while Hay Point and Gladstone saw a drop in coking coal loadings. The slowdown came amid maintenance at Hay Point and Newcastle, compounded by challenging weather across the east coast. Newcastle was particularly affected by persistent showers, large swells, and gusty conditions. Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled across multiple terminals, but weather conditions are easing, with only light showers expected along the Queensland coast.
Brazil Iron Ore: Weekly Pulse
Exports fall to 3-month low, but June closes strong albeit heavy rollover expected into August
Brazilian iron ore exports fell last week—the slowest pace since late March—as both Vale and the junior miners posted declines. Vale shipments dropped WoW with lower volumes across all tracked ports, although maintenance at PDM and Tubarão had wrapped up by Sunday—potentially paving the way for a rebound in loading this week. The junior miners similarly saw a pullback, with volumes falling at CSN, Sudeste, and Minas Rio, while only Ponta Ubu posted an increase. Despite the soft weekly reading, June closed on a strong note — Brazil shipped an estimated 37.4 Mt of iron ore last month, up 3.4% MoM and 4.0% YoY. However, we are expecting around 8–9 million DWT to roll into August — well above last month’s estimated 5.6 million DWT rollover.