Capesize Tonnage Through the Singapore Strait
A sharp weekly drop pulls supply below the YTD average, though anchored traffic points to a recovery ahead. Atlantic basin remains the dominant ballast destination.
Tonnage passing Singapore came in at 8.8 MDwt last week, falling 4.1 MDwt week-on-week and slipping below the YTD average. Both Standard Capesize+Newcastlemax vessels and dedicated tonnage/VLOCs saw supply declines, with the former recording the steeper drop. Looking ahead, tonnage supply is expected to recover in the coming week. Capesize traffic anchored at or heading toward Singapore is trending upward across the board, pointing to a likely lift in the next reading.
On a year-over-year basis, the 3-week rolling average sits 1% higher YoY. Dedicated tonnage/VLOC supply is flat YoY, while Standard Capesize+Newcastlemax supply is tracking 1% above the same period in 2024.
Of the Standard Capesize+Newcastlemax vessels passing Singapore last week, 47% are heading toward S/W/E Africa load ports, 40% toward Brazil, and 13% to COGH or other/unknown destinations. No vessels are tracked heading to the Suez Canal, reflecting continued Red Sea corridor avoidance.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Rise on Stronger Exports out of Dampier
Dampier drives a solid week-on-week gain, though maintenance and weather keep the outlook for the coming week mixed.
Australian iron ore exports increased 2.2% WoW, rising 0.4 MDwt to 21.2 MDwt last week, led by stronger shipments out of Dampier. Maintenance works were present at Esperance and Port Hedland during the week, while the Northwest broadly experienced strong winds throughout.
Looking into the coming week, maintenance has been scheduled at Port Walcott and Port Hedland. Dampier is expected to face strong winds through Monday and Tuesday, while Geraldton is set for a wetter stretch from Wednesday through Sunday, with Thursday seeing the heaviest rainfall at up to 25mm.
Australian Coal Exports Rise as Both Steam and Coking Coal Shipments Pick Up
A broad-based recovery in coal shipments, though multiple ports are carrying maintenance works into next week alongside a heavy rainfall outlook for Newcastle.
Coal exports out of Australia came in at 7.6 MDwt last week, up 7.0% WoW. Both steam and coking coal contributed to the rise, where Hay Point drove the pickup on the coking side, while Gladstone and Newcastle were behind the stronger steam coal volumes. Maintenance was running at Brisbane, Port Kembla, Abbot Point and Newcastle through the week. Weather was mostly fair along the Queensland coast, though Brisbane had a rough start to the week with heavy showers and strong winds on Monday and Tuesday. Newcastle saw similar conditions for much of the week, with showers peaking at 26mm on Tuesday.
Heading into the coming week, maintenance continues at Brisbane, Port Kembla and Newcastle. The Queensland coast is looking at showers in the first half of the week, with Brisbane’s wet weather stretching into Friday — rainfall there could peak around 30mm on Thursday. Newcastle is forecast for showers Monday through Saturday, with the heaviest rain expected Thursday and Friday at up to 50mm.
Brazil Iron Ore Exports Rise, Though May Volumes Continue to Track Below Year-Ago Levels
A strong week led by the junior miners, but the broader May picture remains soft — and a larger-than-usual tonnage rollover into June is building.
Brazil iron ore exports rose 5.9% WoW to 9.1 MDwt last week, with both Vale and the junior miners contributing to the increase. The daily average export rate for the week came in at 1.30 MDwt/day, a step up from the prior week and faster than the 1.17 MDwt/day recorded in May 2025.
Vale’s exports were broadly flat WoW, edging up 0.3% to 6.5 MDwt as stronger volumes from Tubarao and GIT offset declines at CPBS and PDM. A 3-week maintenance schedule at one of PDM’s larger berths wrapped up last Thursday, though a fresh maintenance window at the same berth kicked off this Thursday. On the junior miner side, weekly exports surged 123.4% WoW to 2.1 MDwt, driven by a strong showing from CSN that more than offset declines at Ponta Ubu, Anglo American – Minas Rio and Sudeste.
Zooming out, Brazil’s May 2026 export volumes are tracking below both the prior month and a year ago, with Vale and the juniors both running at a slower pace on both comparisons. With an estimated export rate of 1.10 MDwt/day for the remaining days of May, rollover tonnage into June is shaping up at around 7–8 MDwt — noticeably higher than the 4.4 MDwt seen in the April–May rollover.