Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 16
Singapore tonnage rises on stronger flows, though easing expected as Capesize volumes soften
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 12.6 million DWT last week, up 0.8 million DWT from the previous week, though still below the year-to-date average. The increase was supported by stronger flows from both Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels and dedicated tonnage/VLOCs, with the latter contributing the larger gain.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to ease in the coming week. A decline in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes may be partially offset by a pick-up in dedicated tonnage/VLOCs traffic.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 16% lower year-on-year. Dedicated tonnage/VLOCs are down 19% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are down 14% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Rise on Firmer Walcott and Hedland Loadings
Strong Pilbara shipments continue despite widespread maintenance across terminals
Australian iron ore exports increased 7.0% WoW to 20.6MDwt last week, led by stronger shipments out of Port Walcott and Port Hedland. The uptick came despite a broad maintenance slate across Dampier, Port Walcott, Port Hedland, Geraldton, and Esperance, indicating resilient loading activity across the Pilbara. Weather conditions were largely supportive, with the northwest enjoying fair weather through the week. Geraldton saw only brief showers midweek and over the weekend, limiting disruption to southern operations.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Dampier, Port Walcott, and Geraldton, while weather risks may start to build late in the week. The Pilbara could see wetter conditions from Friday, and Geraldton may face intermittent showers alongside potential large swells on Tuesday–Wednesday.
Australian Coal Exports Decline as Coking Volumes Lead the Pullback
Weaker shipments from Abbot Point and Gladstone drive decline across both coal types
Australian coal exports fell 11.5% WoW to 6.9MDwt last week, with both steam and coking coal shipments declining, though the drop was more pronounced on the coking side. Coking coal volumes weakened on lower shipments from Abbot Point and Gladstone, while steam coal exports softened out of Abbot Point and Newcastle. The decline came amid maintenance at Abbot Point and Newcastle, alongside mixed weather conditions across the east coast.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Abbot Point and Newcastle, while weather conditions are expected to be relatively mild. The Queensland coast may see only very light showers through the week, and Newcastle could face large swells on Monday alongside minor rainfall thereafter.
Brazil Iron Ore Slips as Junior Flows Ease
Decline in junior miner shipments offsets firmer Vale performance
Brazilian iron ore exports edged lower last week, slipping 3% WoW to 7.8 million DWT, as a pullback in junior miner shipments outweighed firmer Vale volumes. The daily run rate eased to 1.11 MDwt/day, slightly below the previous week but still above April 2025 levels. Vale exports rose 5% WoW to 5.6 million DWT, supported by stronger loadings from Tubarão, which more than offset softer flows at PDM. Junior miner exports fell 17% WoW to 2.2 million DWT, with declines across most ports, while Sudeste held broadly steady.
Despite the weekly dip, April exports remain on track above both March and the same period last year. Vale continues to run stronger MoM and YoY, while junior miner volumes are also trending higher on both counts. With 20.6 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil and an expected export pace of 1.10 MDwt/day, rollover into May is projected at 8–9 million DWT — above the 6.2 million carried over in the previous cycle.