Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 14
Singapore tonnage recovers on stronger flows, with further gains expected from Capesize segment
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 10.7 million DWT last week, up 2.3 million DWT from the previous week, though still below the year-to-date average. The increase was driven by stronger flows from both Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels and dedicated tonnage/VLOCs, with the latter contributing the larger gain.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to increase further, likely led by a stronger build-up in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes, which may outweigh a potential dip in dedicated tonnage/VLOC traffic.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 9% lower year-on-year. Dedicated VLOCs are up 4% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are down 18% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Rebound Sharply as Pilbara Recovers from Cyclone Disruptions
Post-cyclone recovery drives strong rebound across key Pilbara terminals
Australian iron ore exports surged 61.1% WoW to 17.1MDwt last week, as shipments rebounded strongly from Port Walcott and Dampier following the disruption caused by Tropical Cyclone Narelle. The recovery reflects a resumption of loading activity across the Pilbara after the previous week’s widespread shutdowns. The rebound came alongside ongoing maintenance at Dampier and Port Hedland, as well as repair works at Port Walcott, though favourable weather conditions across both the northwest and Geraldton helped facilitate a smooth recovery in operations.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Port Hedland and Port Walcott, but fair weather is expected to persist across the Pilbara and Geraldton. With operations normalising and weather risks minimal, export volumes are likely to continue recovering as backlogs from the cyclone period are cleared.
Australian Coal Exports Edge Higher as Steam Coal Offsets Coking Weakness
Newcastle supports gains while coking coal remains soft at northern terminals
Australian coal exports rose 3.6% WoW to 6.8MDwt last week, as stronger steam coal shipments—led by Newcastle—offset a decline in coking coal volumes from Dalrymple Bay and Abbot Point. The modest increase came amid maintenance at Newcastle and mixed weather conditions along the east coast.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Newcastle, while weather conditions are expected to remain relatively calm. With weather risks contained and maintenance concentrated at a single terminal, export volumes may hold steady in the near term.
Brazil Iron Ore Eases, but April Momentum Holds
Weekly dip in exports, but stronger monthly pace and higher rollover support outlook
Brazilian iron ore exports eased last week, falling 11% WoW to 7.6 million DWT, as both Vale and the junior miners saw lower shipments. The daily run rate slipped to 1.08 MDwt/day — softer than the previous week, though still slightly above April 2025 levels. Vale exports declined 10% WoW to 5.3 million DWT, with weaker volumes across all tracked ports. Junior miner exports also fell, down 14% WoW to 2.3 million DWT, as lower shipments from Minas Rio and Sudeste outweighed gains from CSN and Ponta Ubu.
Despite the weekly dip, April exports are off to a strong start — tracking above both March and the same period last year. Both Vale and the junior miners are running stronger on a MoM and YoY basis. With 35.5 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil and a forward pace of 1.10 MDwt/day, rollover into May is projected at 8–9 million DWT — higher than the 6.2 million carried over in the previous cycle.