Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 18
Singapore tonnage remains subdued as weaker VLOC flows offset firmer Capesize volumes
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 11.4 million DWT last week, easing marginally by 0.1 million DWT from the previous week and remaining below the year-to-date average. While Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes increased, this was offset by a larger decline in dedicated tonnage/VLOC traffic.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to increase in the coming week, primarily supported by a recovery in dedicated tonnage/VLOC volumes.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 3% lower year-on-year. Dedicated tonnage/VLOCs are down 3% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are also down 3% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Edge Higher on Firmer Stanley Point Loadings
Stable Pilbara operations support modest gains despite ongoing maintenance
Australian iron ore exports rose 2.9% WoW to 20.9MDwt last week, supported by stronger shipments out of Port Hedland – Stanley Point. The increase came despite ongoing maintenance at Port Hedland and Port Walcott, with overall loading activity remaining relatively stable across the Pilbara. Weather conditions across the northwest were largely favourable.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Geraldton, Port Hedland, and Port Walcott, while the Pilbara could face stronger winds from Thursday through Saturday. Geraldton, however, is expected to enjoy fair weather throughout the week.
Australian Coal Exports Ease as Coking Volumes Weaken
Broad-based softness in coking coal offsets firmer steam coal loadings
Australian coal exports slipped 3.9% WoW to 7.8MDwt last week, as a broad-based decline in coking coal shipments outweighed firmer steam coal volumes. Coking coal exports softened across all tracked ports, while steam coal loadings improved on stronger shipments out of Newcastle and Abbot Point. The decline came alongside maintenance at Abbot Point and Newcastle, with mixed weather conditions across the east coast.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Abbot Point and Newcastle, while light showers are forecast along the Queensland coast around Wednesday–Thursday. Newcastle may also see brief rainfall on Tuesday and again on Sunday, though conditions are expected to remain manageable.
Brazil Iron Ore Slows as May Opens Soft
Vale and junior miner shipments weaken, though rollover remains limited
Brazilian iron ore exports fell sharply last week, dropping 23% WoW to 7.2 million DWT, as both Vale and the junior miners recorded weaker shipments. The daily run rate slowed to 1.02 MDwt/day — below both the previous week and May 2025 levels. Vale exports declined 28% WoW to 4.9 million DWT, with softer flows from Tubarão, PDM, and CPBS outweighing gains at GIT. Junior miner exports also eased, falling 10% WoW to 2.2 million DWT. Lower shipments from Minas Rio and Ponta Ubu outweighed stronger flows from CSN and Sudeste.
Looking ahead, PDM is forecast for heavy rainfall through most of the week, while Tubarão may also face light showers from midweek onwards.
May exports are currently tracking below both April and the same period last year. Vale remains softer on a MoM and YoY basis, though junior miner volumes continue to outperform both month-ago and year-ago levels.
Despite the slower export pace, vessel supply off Brazil remains manageable at 35.0 million DWT. At the current run rate, rollover into June is projected at just 2–3 million DWT — below the 6 million carried over in the previous cycle.