Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 15
Singapore tonnage rises on stronger Capesize flows, with further gains expected ahead
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 11.7 million DWT last week, up 1.0 million DWT from the previous week, though still below the year-to-date average. The increase was led by higher Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes, which offset a slight decline in dedicated tonnage/VLOCs traffic. Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to increase in the coming week, supported by a modest rise in Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels, which may outweigh a continued softening in dedicated tonnage/VLOCs volumes.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 19% lower year-on-year. Dedicated tonnage/VLOCs are down 16% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are down 21% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Rise on Firmer Hedland and Dampier Loadings
Stanley Point and Dampier drive gains despite expanding maintenance schedule
Australian iron ore exports increased 11.5% WoW to 19.0MDwt last week, supported by stronger shipments out of Port Hedland – Stanley Point and Dampier. The increase was achieved despite maintenance at Port Walcott and Port Hedland, with favourable weather conditions across both the northwest and Geraldton allowing operations to proceed smoothly.
Looking ahead, maintenance is set to expand across multiple terminals, including Port Walcott, Geraldton, Esperance, Port Hedland, and Dampier. However, weather conditions are expected to remain supportive, with the Pilbara forecast for fair weather.
Australian Coal Exports Rise as Coking Coal Offsets the Fall in Steam Coal
Dalrymple Bay and Gladstone support gains while steam coal softens
Australian coal exports increased 11.5% WoW to 7.8MDwt last week, as stronger coking coal shipments, led by Dalrymple Bay and Gladstone, offset a dip in steam coal volumes from Gladstone. The gain came despite maintenance at Newcastle, Abbot Point, and Hay Point, with generally favourable weather across the Queensland coast supporting steady operations.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Newcastle, while weather conditions are set to turn more unsettled in the north. The northern Queensland coast may see persistent showers through the week, with rainfall potentially reaching 25mm on Wednesday. Southern terminals, including Gladstone, are expected to see lighter, more manageable rainfall later in the week.
Brazil Iron Ore Edges Higher as Junior Miners Drive Gains
Junior miner strength offsets flat Vale performance as exports trend higher
Brazilian iron ore exports inched higher last week, rising 5% WoW to 8.0 million DWT, as stronger shipments from the junior miners offset a largely flat performance from Vale. The daily run rate improved to 1.14 MDwt/day, a step up from the previous week and above April 2025 levels. Vale exports were broadly stable at 5.3 million DWT (−0.5% WoW), with stronger volumes from PDM offset by weaker flows from CPBS, GIT, and Tubarão. Junior miner exports rose 17% WoW to 2.6 million DWT, driven by higher shipments from Minas Rio, CSN, and Sudeste, which outweighed a dip at Ponta Ubu.
Looking ahead, weather remains a key watchpoint. PDM is forecast to see heavy showers throughout the week, with a new round of maintenance at one of its smaller berths starting today. Tubarão is also expected to face rain through the week.
April exports continue to track ahead of both March and the same period last year, with both Vale and the junior miners running stronger on a MoM and YoY basis. With 29.1 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil and a forward pace of 1.10 MDwt/day, rollover into May is projected at 9–10 million DWT, above the 6.2 million carried over in the previous cycle.