Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 19
Singapore tonnage edges higher on stronger VLOC flows, with Capesize recovery expected ahead
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 11.7 million DWT last week, up 0.3 million DWT from the previous week, though still below the year-to-date average. The increase was driven by stronger dedicated tonnage/VLOC volumes, which offset a decline in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax traffic.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to increase in the coming week, mainly supported by a recovery in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 1% higher year-on-year. Dedicated tonnage/VLOC volumes are up 37% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are down 16% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Fall as Dampier Disruptions Weigh on Volumes
Power outages and maintenance pressure Pilbara loadings despite fair weather outlook
Australian iron ore exports fell 11.8% WoW to 18.4MDwt last week, driven mainly by weaker shipments out of Dampier and Port Hedland – Stanley Point. The decline came amid maintenance at Port Hedland and Port Walcott, while Dampier faced additional disruption from a power outage, further constraining loading activity. Weather conditions also turned less supportive in the second half of the week, with strong winds affecting much of the northwest coast, including Geraldton.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Geraldton, while Dampier continues to face operational disruptions from the ongoing power outage. We have also noted potential maintenance at Port Hedland and Port Walcott, though timing remains unconfirmed. Weather conditions across the Pilbara are expected to stay largely favourable.
Australian Coal Exports Rebound on Stronger Hay Point and Gladstone Loadings
Coking coal recovery supports gains as weather disruptions remain manageable
Australian coal exports rose 12.6% WoW to 8.8MDwt last week, with both steam and coking coal shipments increasing, though gains were more pronounced on the coking side. The rise in coking coal exports was largely driven by stronger loadings out of Hay Point, while steam coal volumes improved on firmer shipments from Gladstone. The increase came despite ongoing maintenance at Abbot Point and Newcastle, with weather conditions remaining relatively manageable across the east coast.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Abbot Point and Newcastle, while the Queensland coast is expected to see light showers through much of the week. Conditions may improve toward the end of the week around Abbot Point, while Newcastle is also forecast for intermittent light rainfall.
Brazil Iron Ore Slumps Further as Junior Flows Collapse
Sharp drop in junior miner exports pushes Brazil shipments to multi-month lows
Brazilian iron ore exports weakened further last week, falling 31% WoW to 5.0 million DWT — the slowest weekly pace in months — as both Vale and the junior miners recorded sharp declines. The daily run rate dropped to just 0.71 MDwt/day, well below both the previous week and May 2025 levels. Vale exports fell 19% WoW to 4.0 million DWT, with weaker shipments from Tubarão, PDM, and GIT outweighing gains at CPBS. Notably, GIT recorded no shipments during the week. The sharper weakness came from the junior miners, whose exports plunged 58% WoW to just 0.9 million DWT. Lower volumes from Minas Rio, CSN, and Sudeste more than offset gains from Ponta Ubu.
Weather remains a key concern. PDM is forecast for heavy rainfall throughout most of the week, intensifying midweek, while maintenance at one of its larger berths continues.
Month-to-date, May exports are now running below both April and the same period last year. Both Vale and the junior miners are tracking weaker on a MoM and YoY basis.
With 31.2 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil and exports slowing sharply, rollover into June is projected at 10–11 million DWT, more than double the 4.4 million carried over in the previous cycle.