Rising geopolitical risks around the Strait of Hormuz are rippling beyond oil markets, with sulphur shipments emerging as another trade flow showing increasingly visible strain. Nearly 50% of global sulphur exports originate from the Arabian Gulf, leaving key importers heavily exposed. Morocco, a major fertiliser producer, sources nearly half of its sulphur imports from the region, while dependence is even higher for Indonesia and India, at around 75%.
From a freight perspective, sulphur flows from the Arabian Gulf are largely concentrated in the smaller bulk segments. Around a quarter of volumes move on Handysize vessels, while more than half are carried on Supramax/Ultramax vessels, making these segments particularly sensitive to disruptions in Hormuz transits. Price movements are reflecting tighter conditions, where in China, sulphur prices have surged from around RMB 3,800/ton to peaks near RMB 6,700/ton, while sulphuric acid prices have risen from roughly RMB 1,000/ton to around RMB 2,100/ton.
Chile is the world’s largest copper producer and concentrate exporter, and around 20% of its mine output relies on sulphuric acid-based processing. Chile imports over one million tons of sulphuric acid from China annually, and replacing these volumes will be challenging given the broader shortage of sulphur feedstocks. Major producers are already flagging this risk, with Chilean miner Antofagasta Minerals highlighting rising fuel and sulphuric acid costs as key near-term concerns. Around three-quarters of Chile’s copper concentrate exports are carried on Supramax/Ultramax vessels.
For now, these remain second-order effects rather than a primary demand shock, but the linkage across sulphur, acid, and copper markets is becoming increasingly difficult to ignore.