Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 29
Singapore tonnage rises but remains below average; further increase expected
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore rose last week but remained below the year-to-date average. The increase was driven by higher volumes of dedicated tonnage/VLOCs, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax supply declined. Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to rise further, supported by increases in both Capesize/Newcastlemax and VLOC traffic.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is tracking higher YoY, driven by stronger dedicated VLOC volumes, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax supply remains slightly lower YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Fall as Loadings Slow at Key Pilbara Terminals
Port Hedland and Walcott volumes decline amid ongoing maintenance
Australian iron ore exports dropped last week, with the decline largely driven by softer shipments out of Port Hedland and Port Walcott. The pullback came amid ongoing maintenance works at both terminals, limiting throughput capacity across the Pilbara. Weather conditions were mostly benign across Australia’s northwest and Geraldton.
Looking ahead, maintenance has been scheduled at Dampier and Port Walcott, although weather along the Pilbara is expected to stay relatively stable. Geraldton, however, is likely to face large swells early in the week, followed by showers in the second half.
Australian Coal Exports Inch Higher as Steam Coal Offsets Coking Weakness
Abbot Point drives steam coal gains while coking coal slips at key ports
Australian coal exports edged up by 2.5% WoW to 9.2 MDwt last week, supported by gains in steam coal volumes, which outweighed the decline in coking coal shipments. Steam coal exports increased across most tracked ports, with Abbot Point seeing the strongest uplift. On the coking coal side, declines out of Abbot Point, Gladstone, and Hay Point offset the notable rise from Dalrymple Bay. This came as maintenance continued at Abbot Point and Hay Point, while Queensland’s northern coast experienced intermittent showers throughout the week.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled for Newcastle and Hay Point, while the Queensland coast is expected to face consistent rainfall through the week. With steam coal volumes helping to stabilise overall exports, attention now turns to how well terminals can maintain momentum amid wet weather and maintenance pressures.
Brazil Iron Ore: Weekly Pulse
Vale steady as junior miners rebound sharply; July exports tracking higher
Brazilian iron ore exports rose last week, with both Vale and the junior miners posting gains as loading activity picked up across several terminals. Vale’s shipments rose 6% WoW, with higher volumes from CPBS and GIT helping offset reduced flows from PDM and Tubarão. Junior miners posted a sharper 29% WoW increase, led by stronger shipments from Minas Rio and Sudeste. Ponta Ubu recorded no loadings due to a berthing gap, while CSN also declined.
July exports are currently tracking above both June and the same period last year. Vale remains on an upward trend MoM and YoY, while junior miner volumes are still lagging month-on-month but are higher than last year. Rollover into August is expected to land around 6–7 million DWT — slightly above the June–July rollover.