Last week’s Capesize trade flows revealed a shifting global balance, with Brazil iron ore exports gaining momentum as Australia faced a slight setback. Meanwhile, vessel traffic through Singapore rose sharply—though signs point to a pullback in the week ahead.
Tonnage passing through Singapore reached 10.4 million DWT last week, climbing 1.6 million DWT from the previous week but still sitting below the year-to-date average. The increase was driven by a rise in both Standard Capesize + Newcastlemax vessels and dedicated tonnage/VLOCs, yet this build-up may be short-lived. Based on vessels currently anchored or en route, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to ease in the week. A decline in Standard Capesize + Newcastlemax units is likely to outweigh the modest gains in dedicated tonnage and VLOCs.
Australia’s iron ore exports dipped 7.9% week-on-week to 21.2 million DWT. The pullback was led by weaker volumes from Port Walcott and FMG and Stanley Point at Port Hedland, despite a full week of fair weather along the northwest coast and no scheduled maintenance at major terminals. Looking ahead, no maintenance disruptions are planned for the week, but the northwest coast is forecast to face strong winds in the first half.
In contrast to iron ore, Australian coal exports surged 14.9% week-on-week to 10.4 million DWT. Steam coal led the increase, particularly through Newcastle, while coking coal strength came from Gladstone. This upswing occurred despite maintenance works at Abbot Point, Port Kembla, Newcastle, and Hay Point. Weather in Queensland was mixed, with showers and strong winds across key ports. Similar conditions are expected this week, including widespread showers and strong gusts across Newcastle and Brisbane. Maintenance will continue at Abbot Point, Newcastle, and Hay Point.
On the Atlantic front, Brazilian iron ore exports rose 18.4% week-on-week to 9.9 million DWT. Vale led with a 20.1% jump, supported by higher shipments out of PDM, Tubarão, and GIT. Junior Brazilian miners also saw healthy gains, with combined exports rising 13.4% week-on-week to 2.5 million DWT. Higher volumes from CSN, Sudeste (Usiminas and Trafigura), and Ponta Ubu more than offset a decline from Anglo American’s Minas Rio.
So far in June, Brazil’s total export volumes are tracking ahead of both May and June 2024, driven largely by Vale. While junior miner exports have softened month-on-month, they remain firmly above year-ago levels. With just one week remaining in June, Brazil is expected to average 1.25 million DWT per day—implying a rollover of 6–7 million DWT into July. That’s up sharply from the estimated 4.2 million DWT rollover between May and June.
Last week’s developments highlight a growing divergence across the major basins. While Australian iron ore exports faltered temporarily, Brazilian ports are picking up the slack—and with stronger volumes expected towards the end of June, the Atlantic is increasingly asserting itself.