Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 51
Singapore tonnage climbs above YTD average on stronger flows across both segments
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore rose to 12.2 million DWT last week, up 1.1 million DWT from the prior week and pushing above the year-to-date average. The increase was supported by stronger flows from both Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels and dedicated tonnage/VLOCs, with the latter contributing the larger gain.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to continue rising, driven by an uptick across both vessel segments.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 4% lower year-on-year. VLOCs are down 7% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are down 3% YoY.
Australian Coal Exports Ease as Loadings Slow Across Queensland
Rain and reduced loadings at Dalrymple Bay, Brisbane, and Gladstone weigh on volumes
Australian coal exports slipped 3.7% WoW to 8.5 million DWT last week, with declines seen across both steam and coking coal flows. Steam coal volumes fell on reduced shipments from Dalrymple Bay and Brisbane, while weaker coking coal loadings out of Gladstone pulled overall volumes lower. This came despite modest maintenance, limited mainly to Abbot Point and Newcastle.
Looking ahead, weather risks remain in play. The northern Queensland coast is bracing for heavier rainfall early in the week, while the southern half may see stronger showers later on. Newcastle is also poised for light but persistent showers through to Saturday. While not extreme, these conditions—paired with ongoing maintenance—may modestly weigh on throughput.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Climb Back Above 22MDwt, Led by Port Hedland and Geraldton
Iron ore rebounds 9.6% WoW as majors push loadings despite winds and ongoing repairs
Iron ore exports from Australia rose 9.6% WoW to 22.0 million DWT last week, marking a strong rebound driven by higher loadings from Port Hedland (FMG and BHP) and Geraldton. The recovery came despite ongoing maintenance at Port Hedland and strong wind conditions across the northwest.
Looking ahead, no major maintenance is scheduled, and while light showers are forecast at Port Hedland and strong winds may return to Geraldton, no significant disruption is expected.
Brazil Iron Ore: Weekly Pulse
Vale volumes slump 20% as juniors inch higher; December pace still trails November
Brazilian iron ore exports pulled back last week, falling 13% to 8.4 million DWT, as a sharp drop in Vale volumes outweighed gains from the junior miners. Vale’s exports fell nearly 20% WoW to 6.0 million DWT, with declines recorded across all tracked ports except GIT, which held steady. In contrast, junior miner exports rose 9% WoW to 2.4 million DWT, supported by gains at Ponta Ubu, Sudeste, and Minas Rio, which more than offset a dip from CSN
Total exports are still trailing November’s pace, but remain ahead of December 2024. Vale continues to run below last month’s levels, while juniors remain softer MoM but stronger YoY. At the current rate — and with 23.0 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil — rollover into January is expected at 11–12 million DWT, more than double the 5.5 million carried over into December.