Capesize Tonnage Passing Singapore Eases but Remains Elevated
VLOC slowdown offsets modest Capesize gains as Singapore traffic stays above long-term averages
Capesize tonnage passing Singapore recorded 12.1 MDwt last week, down 1.3 MDwt WoW but still holding above the 52-week average. The decline was primarily driven by a sharp drop in dedicated tonnage/VLOC movements, which more than offset a modest increase in Standard Capesize and Newcastlemax traffic.
Based on vessels currently anchored at or heading toward Singapore, overall tonnage supply through the region could remain broadly flat or edge slightly lower in the coming week. Standard Capesize and Newcastlemax supply is expected to stay relatively stable, potentially seeing a slight uptick, while dedicated tonnage/VLOC movements are likely to decline further.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average of tonnage passing Singapore is currently tracking 26% higher YoY. Dedicated tonnage/VLOC traffic is up 31% YoY, while Standard Capesize and Newcastlemax movements are 24% higher YoY, highlighting the continued strength in long-haul iron ore flows.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Ease as Hedland Loadings Slow
Port Hedland maintenance weighs on shipments despite fair Pilbara weather
Australian iron ore exports fell 7.7% WoW to 19.2 MDwt last week, mainly due to weaker shipments out of Port Hedland – BHP and Cape Preston. The pullback came alongside ongoing maintenance at Port Hedland, which likely weighed on overall loading activity.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Port Hedland and Port Walcott, though the broader Pilbara region is expected to see fair weather throughout the week. As such, throughput should stabilise within the 4-year seasonal range.
Australian Coal Exports Slide as Weather Disruptions Hit East Coast Loadings
Tropical low brings heavy rain and wind, disrupting Queensland coal terminals
Australian coal exports fell 17.3% WoW to 6.1 MDwt last week, as both steam and coking coal shipments declined. The drop in steam coal volumes was mainly driven by weaker loadings from Newcastle and Brisbane, while coking coal exports softened on lower shipments out of Gladstone and Dalrymple Bay.
The decline coincided with maintenance at Abbot Point and Newcastle, alongside adverse weather conditions across the Queensland coast. A tropical low brought heavy rainfall to the region in the second half of the week, with Gladstone recording up to 145mm on Saturday, while also contending with strong winds throughout the week.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Newcastle and Hay Point. Northern sections of the Queensland coast may see light showers, though conditions are expected to be far calmer than the storm experienced last week, which should help stabilise export volumes.
Vale Pullback Weighs on Brazil Iron Ore Flows
Sharp drop in Vale shipments offsets strong rebound from junior miners
Brazilian iron ore exports eased last week, falling 10% WoW to 7.1 million DWT, as a sharp decline in Vale shipments outweighed stronger flows from the junior miners.
Vale exports dropped 22% WoW to 4.8 million DWT, with weaker loadings from PDM and Tubar?o more than offsetting gains at GIT. CPBS once again recorded no shipments during the period. In contrast, junior miner exports rose 31% WoW to 2.3 million DWT, as higher shipments from Minas Rio, Ponta Ubu, and CSN outweighed declines at Sudeste. At Itagua?, operations are expected to remain suspended in the coming week.
With 36.6 million DWT of vessel supply currently off Brazil and an estimated export pace of 1.05 MDwt/day for the remainder of March, rollover into April is projected at 12–13 million DWT — well above the 7.9 million seen in the February–March rollover.