Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 41
Singapore tonnage dips slightly but remains above YTD average
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded a slight decrease from the previous week, though still sitting just above the year-to-date average. The fall was driven by a decline in dedicated VLOC volumes, which offset the increase in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax supply.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to rise this week, with increases anticipated across both vessel types.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 10% higher year-on-year, where dedicated VLOCs are down 1% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes are up 16% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Rise as Dampier and BHP Volumes Strengthen
WoW volumes climb nearly 5% amid solid Pilbara performance
Australian iron ore exports rose by 4.9% WoW last week, led by stronger shipments out of Dampier and Port Hedland – BHP. The increase comes as activity picked up across key Pilbara terminals, despite ongoing maintenance at Port Hedland and Port Walcott.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled to continue at both ports, with Geraldton also entering a maintenance window. It has been a strong run for Australian iron ore in recent weeks, with volumes remaining above the 4-year range.
Australian Coal Exports Edge Higher as Steam Coal Offsets Coking Decline
Newcastle drives gains as northern terminals remain soft
Australian coal exports rose by 3.2% WoW last week, as a lift in steam coal shipments—driven by Newcastle—offset a decline in coking coal volumes, which fell mainly at Abbot Point and Gladstone. The increase came amid maintenance activity at Abbot Point, Hay Point, and Newcastle, and relatively stable weather conditions along the east coast.
Looking ahead, maintenance is set to expand to include Port Kembla, alongside ongoing works at the three major terminals. Showers are forecast midweek across much of Queensland, with Brisbane expecting rain into the weekend, and Newcastle likely to see wet weather on Friday.
While weather and maintenance remain active variables, steam coal loadings out of Newcastle continue to support baseline volumes, helping offset softness from northern coking terminals.
Brazil Iron Ore: Weekly Pulse
Vale-led rally lifts total exports; rollover risk increases heading into November
Brazilian iron ore exports rose 6% last week, driven by stronger loadings from Vale that outweighed a minor decline from the junior miners. Vale’s exports increased 10% WoW, lifted by higher volumes from PDM. Loadings at GIT and CPBS slowed, while Tubarão held steady. Junior miner exports fell 3%, as declines at Ponta Ubu and CSN offset gains from Port of Açu and Sudeste.
Midway through October, Brazil’s export pace remains ahead of both last month and the same period last year. Vale is leading the acceleration, while junior miner volumes are tracking similarly MoM and ahead YoY.
With 18 days remaining and 31.5 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil, rollover into November is projected at 10–11 million DWT — notably higher than the 7.1 million rolled from September into October.