Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 12
Singapore tonnage softens on weaker Capesize flows, with further easing expected
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 10.3 million DWT last week, down 0.5 million DWT from the previous week and remaining below the 52-week average. The decline was driven by lower Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes, which offset a modest increase in dedicated VLOC traffic.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to decrease in the coming week, with both Capesize/Newcastlemax and dedicated tonnage/VLOC volumes projected to soften.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 45% higher year-on-year. Dedicated VLOCs are up 2% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are up 82% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Edge Higher Ahead of Cyclone Disruption
Port Walcott supports gains as cyclone risk builds across the Pilbara
Australian iron ore exports rose 2.1% WoW to 21.4MDwt last week, supported by stronger shipments out of Port Walcott, despite ongoing maintenance at Dampier, Port Hedland, and Port Walcott. Weather impacts were relatively limited through most of the week.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Dampier and Esperance, while Tropical Cyclone Narelle is expected to bring a deterioration in weather across the northwest. Showers are likely to intensify midweek, particularly around Wednesday–Thursday, with Geraldton also set to face heavy rain and strong winds from Thursday onward.
Australian Coal Exports Rebound Sharply on Broad-Based Recovery
Coking and steam coal lift volumes despite maintenance, though seasonality may cap gains
Australian coal exports surged 25.1% WoW to 8.0MDwt last week, with gains across both coking and steam coal. Coking coal volumes were lifted by stronger shipments out of Dalrymple Bay and Hay Point, while steam coal exports increased on higher loadings from Abbot Point and Newcastle. The rebound came despite ongoing maintenance at Newcastle, with weather conditions largely manageable.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Newcastle, while weather conditions are expected to remain relatively mild. The Queensland coast may see brief showers, with Brisbane likely to enjoy a short midweek respite. With disruptions limited, export volumes could remain supported in the near term, but seasonality paints a different picture, with volumes poised to fall ~20% WoW if history is any guide.
Brazil Iron Ore Rebounds, but Backlog Tonnage Continues to Build
Vale and juniors recover, but slower pace keeps rollover elevated
Brazilian iron ore exports rebounded last week, rising 34% WoW to 6.6 million DWT, as both Vale and the junior miners recovered from the prior week’s slump. The daily run rate improved to 0.95 MDwt/day, though it remains below February’s pace.
Vale exports climbed 33% WoW to 4.9 million DWT, with stronger loadings from CPBS, GIT, and Tubarão more than offsetting weaker flows at PDM. Junior miner exports also rose 36% WoW to 1.7 million DWT, supported by higher volumes from Minas Rio, Sudeste, and Ponta Ubu, which outweighed a slight dip at CSN.
Despite the weekly recovery, March exports remain on track below both February and the same period last year. Both Vale and the junior miners continue to lag on a MoM and YoY basis. With 24.4 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil and a softer forward run rate of 0.90 MDwt/day, rollover into April is projected at 16–17 million DWT — more than double the previous month’s carryover.