Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 20
Singapore tonnage rises above average on stronger Capesize flows, though easing is expected ahead
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 12.9 million DWT last week, up 1.2 million DWT from the previous week and moving above the year-to-date average. The increase was led by stronger Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes, which offset a modest decline in dedicated tonnage/VLOC traffic. Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to ease in the coming week, driven by a broader pullback in Capesize traffic.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking broadly in line with the same period last year. Dedicated tonnage/VLOC traffic is up 12% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes are down 6% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Rebound Despite Dampier Power Disruptions
Stronger Dampier and Walcott loadings offset ongoing operational disruptions
Australian iron ore exports rose 12.8% WoW to 20.8MDwt last week, driven by stronger shipments out of Dampier and Port Walcott. The rebound came despite ongoing maintenance at Geraldton, Port Hedland, and Port Walcott, while Dampier continued to face disruptions from a power outage. Weather conditions were relatively manageable overall, though Port Hedland recorded strong winds early in the week, while Geraldton experienced light showers toward the weekend.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Esperance, while potential works at Port Hedland and Port Walcott are also being monitored, though dates remain unconfirmed.
Australian Coal Exports Fall Sharply as Weather and Maintenance Weigh on Volumes
Weakness in Hay Point and Newcastle shipments drags exports lower
Australian coal exports fell 19.6% WoW last week, with both steam and coking coal shipments declining, though losses were more pronounced on the coking side. The drop in coking coal exports was driven mainly by weaker loadings out of Hay Point, while steam coal volumes softened on lower shipments from Newcastle.
The decline came amid maintenance at Abbot Point and Newcastle, alongside deteriorating weather conditions across much of the east coast. Northern Queensland experienced strong winds midweek, while the Hay Point/Dalrymple Bay region saw showers through most of the week. Further south, Gladstone faced gusty conditions and intermittent rainfall, while Brisbane recorded widespread showers. Newcastle also contended with unsettled weather, including 34mm of rainfall on Wednesday and persistent strong winds from Tuesday through Thursday.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Abbot Point, Brisbane, and Newcastle, while weather conditions remain mixed. Northern Queensland is expected to enjoy largely fair weather, though southern areas may face heavier rainfall early in the week, with Brisbane potentially receiving up to 45mm of rain. Newcastle is also forecast for showers through the week, with rainfall intensity likely peaking early in the period.
Brazil Iron Ore Rebounds Sharply as Flows Recover
Vale and junior miners recover from prior week’s collapse, though monthly pace remains soft
Brazilian iron ore exports rebounded strongly last week, surging 74% WoW to 8.6 million DWT, as both Vale and the junior miners recovered from the previous week’s slump. The daily export pace improved to 1.23 MDwt/day — back above May 2025 levels. Vale exports climbed 62% WoW to 6.5 million DWT, with stronger shipments recorded across all tracked ports. Junior miner exports saw an even sharper rebound, jumping 123% WoW to 2.1 million DWT, supported by higher volumes across all tracked ports.
Weather remains mixed across the main Vale systems. PDM is forecast for moderate rainfall across most of the week while berth maintenance continues, and Tubarão is also expected to face showers throughout the period. Despite the weekly recovery, May exports are still tracking below both April and the same period last year. Both Vale and the junior miners remain softer on a MoM and YoY basis.
With 24.0 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil and a forward export pace of 1.00 MDwt/day, rollover into June is still projected at 10–11 million DWT — more than double the 4.4 million carried over in the previous cycle.