Capesize Tonnage Passing Through Singapore Falls Below Average
Broad-based decline across vessel segments, with VLOC weakness leading the drop
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore recorded 10.5 million DWT last week, down 1.6 million DWT from the previous week and below the year-to-date average. The decline was driven by lower flows from both Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax vessels and dedicated tonnage/VLOCs, with the latter seeing the larger drop.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to increase in the coming week. A recovery in dedicated VLOC volumes is likely to outweigh a potential dip in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax traffic.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 25% higher year-on-year. Dedicated tonnage/VLOCs are up 23% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax are up 26% YoY
Australian Iron Ore Exports Rebound on Strong FMG Loadings
Port Hedland – FMG drives gains despite maintenance and mixed weather conditions
Australian iron ore exports rose 9.1% WoW to 21.0MDwt last week, driven primarily by stronger shipments out of Port Hedland – FMG, and an increase despite ongoing maintenance at Port Hedland and Port Walcott. Weather conditions were somewhat mixed, with strong winds across the northwest early in the week, while Geraldton faced persistent gusty conditions throughout the period, adding some friction to southern operations, but this seemed to not have deterred loading operations.
Looking ahead, maintenance is scheduled at Port Walcott, while the Pilbara is expected to see light showers toward the end of the week. With steady weather and improving loadings, export volumes could remain supported in the near term.
Australian Coal Exports Edge Higher as Coking Coal Offsets Steam Weakness
Dalrymple Bay supports gains while weather and maintenance weigh on steam coal flows
Australian coal exports rose 4.8% WoW to 6.4MDwt last week, as stronger coking coal shipments—led by Dalrymple Bay—offset a decline in steam coal volumes. Steam coal exports weakened on lower loadings out of Gladstone and Abbot Point, capping the overall upside. The increase came amid maintenance at Hay Point and Newcastle, alongside disruptive weather conditions across the east coast. Queensland experienced heavy rainfall early in the week, with Gladstone recording up to 110mm on Tuesday, followed by intermittent showers and strong winds.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Newcastle, while the far north of the Queensland coast is expected to be hit by Tropical Cyclone Narelle. It is expected to make landfall north of Cairns on Friday, bringing destructive winds, intense rainfall, and triggering dangerous flooding
Brazil Iron Ore Slumps as Rollover Risk Surge
Vale and junior miner declines push exports to multi-month lows, driving higher rollover
Brazilian iron ore exports dropped sharply last week, falling 30% WoW to 5.0 million DWT — the weakest weekly pace since February 2025, as both Vale and the junior miners saw steep declines. The daily run rate slowed to just 0.71 MDwt/day, well below recent levels.
Vale exports fell 24% WoW to 3.7 million DWT, with weaker loadings from GIT and Tubarão outweighing gains at PDM. CPBS once again recorded no shipments. A series of maintenance works wrapped up last week across PDM and Tubarão, but disruptions continue to weigh on overall flows. Junior miner exports dropped even more sharply, down 44% WoW to 1.3 million DWT, with declines across Minas Rio, Sudeste, and CSN. Only Ponta Ubu saw a slight increase.
Month-to-date, March exports are running below both February and the same period last year. Both Vale and the junior miners are trending weaker on a MoM and YoY basis. With 32.0 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil and a muted export pace, rollover into April is now projected at 15–16 million DWT — roughly double the previous month’s carryover.