Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 50
Singapore tonnage rises on VLOC gains; YoY average still lower
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore rose to 11.0 million DWT last week, up 0.5 million DWT from the previous week, though volumes remained below the year-to-date average. The slight increase was driven by a notable rise in dedicated VLOC traffic, which offset a decline in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax supply. Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to increase marginally, led by a further build-up in VLOC volumes that may outweigh a possible softening in Capesize flows.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 4% lower year-on-year. VLOCs are down 4% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes are down 3% YoY.
Iron Ore Exports Ease, but Remain Within Seasonal Band
Hedland volumes soften but overall throughput holds steady
Australian iron ore exports slipped 9.7% WoW to 20.1 million DWT, weighed down by reduced volumes from Port Hedland – FMG and BHP. Despite the drop, throughput continues to hover within the 4-year seasonal band, reflecting a period of relative steadiness even as Port Hedland undergoes ongoing maintenance. Weather disruptions were limited last week.
Looking to the week ahead, the Pilbara region is poised for light showers and strong winds mid-week, though conditions are not expected to materially impact operations.
Australian Coal Exports Rise on Broad-Based Recovery in Steam and Coking Volumes
Brisbane, Newcastle, and Abbot Point lead gains across both coal types
Australian coal exports climbed 7.6% WoW to 8.9 million DWT last week, with gains across both steam and coking coal. Steam coal volumes were lifted by stronger shipments from Brisbane and Newcastle, while coking coal exports rose on the back of increased loadings out of Abbot Point. The lift came despite ongoing maintenance at Abbot Point, Port Kembla, Hay Point, and Newcastle, and patchy weather across the east coast.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Newcastle and Abbot Point, with light rain expected to linger across much of the Queensland coast. Nonetheless, exports are likely to continue trending higher into the final weeks of the year.
Brazil Iron Ore: Weekly Pulse
Vale rebounds 53% to lift total exports; PDM faces wet, maintenance-heavy week
Brazilian iron ore exports rebounded sharply last week, rising 35% to 9.6 million DWT, driven by a surge in Vale loadings. Vale’s shipments jumped 53% WoW to 7.5 million DWT, with higher volumes seen across all tracked ports. Junior miner exports edged lower — down 5% WoW to 2.2 million DWT — as declines from Ponta Ubu and Minas Rio outweighed gains from Sudeste and CSN.
Looking ahead, weather and maintenance remain key factors. PDM is forecast for showers throughout the week, with one smaller berth currently under maintenance and another large berth set to begin repairs on Saturday. Tubarão and Itaguaí are also expected to see persistent showers.
December exports are still lagging November levels, but remain ahead of the same time last year. Vale is trending below last month but above December 2024, while junior miner volumes are down MoM but higher YoY. At the moment, tonnage rollover into January is expected at 12–13 million DWT — more than double the 5.5 million carried over into December.