Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 49
Singapore flows dip on weaker VLOCs; recovery expected ahead
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore fell to 10.5 million DWT last week, down 1.3 million DWT from the previous week and below the year-to-date average. While Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes saw a modest increase, this was outweighed by a sharper drop in dedicated tonnage/VLOC supply.
Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to rise, driven by a recovery in VLOC traffic, which is likely to offset a potential dip in Capesize flows.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 8% higher year-on-year. VLOCs are up 11% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes are up 6% YoY.
Australia Iron Ore Exports Rebound Sharply, Testing Upper End of Seasonal Range
Strong gains from Walcott and Hedland lift volumes to 4-month high
Australian iron ore exports surged 22.4% WoW to 22.1 million DWT last week—the highest level since August—on the back of stronger shipments from Port Walcott, Port Hedland – FMG, and Stanley Point. The sharp rebound came despite wind disruptions and light showers across the Northwest, as miners capitalized on improved conditions and a relatively clear maintenance slate.
This recent uptick pushes throughput toward the upper bound of the 4-year seasonal range, signalling a renewed year-end push by the majors. With fair weather forecast across key load ports and only Port Hedland slated for maintenance, loading momentum appears poised to continue.
Australian Coal Exports Rebound to Come Above Seasonal Range Despite Weather Hurdles
Steam coal from Newcastle drives gains as coking volumes dip
Australian coal exports rose 13.4% WoW to 8.2 million DWT last week, as higher steam coal volumes—primarily from Newcastle—offset a decline in coking coal shipments out of Gladstone. The rebound from the prior week’s low pushes volumes back above the 4-year seasonal range.
This came despite persistent showers and strong winds along the Queensland coast and in Newcastle. Looking ahead, weather remains a watchpoint, and maintenance is scheduled at key terminals including Port Kembla, Newcastle, Abbot Point, and Hay Point—potentially capping further upside.
Brazil Iron Ore: Weekly Pulse
Shipments slump 28% as Vale and junior miners slow; rollover pressure builds
Brazilian iron ore exports slumped last week, falling 28% WoW to 7.1 million DWT — the slowest pace since early October, as both Vale and the junior miners recorded lower shipments. Vale’s exports dropped 33% to 4.9 million DWT, with volumes down across all tracked ports. GIT recorded no shipments. Junior miner exports also declined, down 17% WoW to 2.3 million DWT, with losses at Sudeste, CSN, and Minas Rio outweighing gains from Ponta Ubu.
December exports are off to a slower start, currently tracking below both November and December 2024 levels. Vale remains behind MoM and YoY, while junior miners are lower than last month but still ahead YoY. With 24 days remaining and 38.9 million DWT of vessel supply off Brazil, rollover into January is projected at 12–13 million DWT — more than double the 5.5 million DWT carried over into December.