Weekly Cape Traffic Tracker – Week 43
Singapore tonnage dips below average as Cape volumes shrink
Capesize tonnage passing through Singapore fell last week, dropping below the year-to-date average. The decline was led by a sharper drop in Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes, alongside a decrease in dedicated tonnage/VLOC traffic. Looking ahead, tonnage supply through Singapore is expected to increase, with rising Capesize/Newcastlemax flows likely to outweigh a modest dip in VLOC volumes.
From a broader perspective, the 3-week rolling average is currently tracking 19% lower year-on-year. Dedicated VLOCs are up 5% YoY, while Standard Capesize/Newcastlemax volumes are down 29% YoY.
Australian Iron Ore Exports Dip Slightly as FMG Volumes Ease
Top-end run continues despite minor decline in Hedland loadings
Australian iron ore exports edged down by 0.9% WoW to 20.9 million DWT last week, as weaker loadings from Port Hedland – FMG more than offset gains out of Port Walcott. The minor decline came during a week of maintenance at Port Hedland, with weather conditions largely stable across the northwest.
Notably, weekly volumes have hovered above the 4-year seasonal range for several weeks. While this week saw a slight dip, overall export performance remains resilient.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Port Hedland, though fair weather is forecast across the Pilbara, providing a window for stable operations.
Australian Coal Exports Weaken as Weather and Maintenance Weigh on Volumes
Multi-port disruptions pressure steam and coking shipments
Australian coal exports declined by 5.9% WoW to 7.6 million DWT last week, with both steam and coking coal volumes dipping. The fall in steam coal exports was led by Brisbane and Gladstone, while coking coal volumes softened at Abbot Point, Dalrymple Bay, and Hay Point. The decline followed widespread maintenance across Abbot Point, Hay Point, Gladstone, Port Kembla, and Newcastle. Weather was largely stable along the Queensland coast.
Looking ahead, maintenance will continue at Newcastle, Hay Point, and Gladstone, while rainfall is expected to intensify along the Queensland coast before easing into the weekend.
Brazil Iron Ore: Weekly Pulse
Junior miners rebound sharply as Vale volumes drop
Brazilian iron ore exports rose 2% last week to 9.4 million DWT, supported by a sharp recovery in junior miner shipments that offset a decline from Vale. Vale’s exports fell 11% WoW to 6.6 million DWT, with lower volumes from PDM outweighing gains from Tubarão, CPBS, and GIT. In contrast, junior miner exports rose 56% WoW to 1.0 million DWT, with gains across all tracked ports.
Nearing the end of October, export volumes remain ahead of both September and October 2024. Vale has led the pace so far this month, while junior miners are trending in line with last month and ahead of last year.
At the current run rate, Brazil is on track to roll over 7–8 million DWT of vessel supply into November — similar to last month’s rollover.